Canada’s complicated war against ISIS gets even more so: Walkom
We know who the bad guys are. But who are the good guys in this ever-expanding war?
JOSEPH EID / AFP/GETTY IMAGES FILE PHOTO
Given that Syrian President Bashar Assad’s troops are the most reliable anti-ISIS forces on the ground in Syria, Russian President Vladimir Putin has decided to throw his full weight behind the dictator. But that strategy may not work, writes Thomas Walkom.
As Canada prepares to shift its war focus in the Middle East from air to ground, it faces a conflict that is becoming ever more complicated.
In Syria, NATO member Turkey (a friend), is shelling Kurdish forces (also friends).
With the help of Russian air power, the Syrian army of President Bashar Assad is advancing against rebel forces — some of whom are viewed as enemy terrorists by the U.S. and its allies, some of whom are labelled moderates.
Saudi Arabia has threatened to send ground troops into Syria — although it is not entirely clear whose side they would be on.
The Saudis, incidentally, are buying armoured personnel carriers from Canada.
Meanwhile, someone is bombing hospitals and clinics. The aid group, Doctors Without Borders, blames the Russians. The Russians blame the Americans.
All of this is taking place in the shadow of an agreement hammered out by Russia and the U.S. to eventually declare a ceasefire.
Even if this ceasefire gets off the ground, it promises to be an odd one. Under its terms, combatants have reserved the right to continue attacking those they view as terrorists.
For Canada, all of this matters. Ottawa is extricating itself from at least part of the air war. But it is expanding its role in Iraq’s ground war.
The new Liberal government has decided to triple the number of special forces soldiers operating there.
So far, much of the debate in Canada has revolved around whether this so-called advise-and-assist mission should be labelled combat. If words mean anything, it probably should. Canadian advisers operate on the front lines and take part in battles. One Canadian soldier has already been killed.
But the fuss over semantics masks a broader question: What exactly are Canada’s war aims?
And do our allies in the region share them?
Theoretically, Canada’s war aim, like that of the U.S., is to defeat the militants who call themselves the Islamic State (ISIS), and who operate in Iraq, Syria, Libya and Afghanistan.
To that end, we are training Kurdish forces in northern Iraq.
But what do the Kurds want? Historically, they have agitated for their own state, to be carved out of Iraq, Syria, Turkey and Iran.
The Kurds who Canada supports in Iraq are governed by a political party that gets along with Turkey. The Kurds who Canada supports in Syria are governed by a political party that doesn’t.
At one level, the two Kurdish parties are rivals. But the war has brought them closer together. In 2014, Iraqi Kurdish fighters made their way across the border to help their Syrian cousins recapture the town of Kobane from ISIS.
Turkey’s war aim, too, is technically directed at defeating ISIS. In practice, Turkey focuses more on the Kurds. Ankara is determined to prevent them from setting up another mini-state along its border. It fears, probably correctly, that this could encourage Kurdish separatists inside Turkey. It has shelled Kurdish forces in both Iraq and Syria.
The Saudis, meanwhile, appear less concerned with ISIS than they are with Iran. Saudi Arabia is alarmed by Iran’s influence. It is equally alarmed that Assad, whom it views as an Iranian stooge, is making gains in the Syrian civil war.
As for the Russians, their war aims appear to be relatively straightforward. They want to keep the naval base they lease in Syria. They want to show the world that they are players. Most important, they want a strong government in Damascus that can prevent Islamic militants there from threatening Russia.
Given that Assad’s troops are the most reliable anti-ISIS forces on the ground in Syria, Russian President Vladimir Putin has decided to throw his full weight behind the dictator.
That strategy may not work (it didn’t when Russia tried it in Afghanistan). But it has a certain brutal logic.
In short, there is little that is simple about this ever-expanding war. Defence Minister Harjit Sajjan has wisely said that Canada should avoid involving itself militarily in a conflict until it knows whom it wants to support.
But whom do we support here? We know who the bad guys are. But the good guys? That’s the mystery.
Thomas Walkom’s column appears Wednesday, Thursday and Sunday.
No comments:
Post a Comment